https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/unfu0x/you_dont_need_defaults_to_have_a_housing_crash/

I'm tired of hearing people say: "We don't have subprime mortgages that we had in 2008" or "You're not seeing people default on their mortgages, so we cannot be near a housing crash!"

Markets go up when there's excess demand, and they come down when there's excess supply. This supply problem can be fixed by many things.

• Institutional sales of properties in reaction to equity market downturn (margin call; loss of liquidity)
• Lack of market capacity to accept new rental hikes
• Collapse of the Airbnb market due to many factors driving sale of dedicated Airbnb units, or the flooding of rental market with prior Airbnb units
• New construction flooding the market due to prior purchase commitments that are no longer viable with recent rates. Generally these commitments happen months before families are able to lock in the rate.
• Excessive population exiting the housing market as they retire.

All of these situations are presenting themselves right now, as well as others I've probably missed. Which one will break the camel's back, no one knows....

Common misconception is that we have a shortage of housing. In fact we have more housing per person then ever in history: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=OlPV (low means lots of units)

Another common misconception is that we're not building fast enough. ALSO WRONG. We're building faster than we've ever built in history as well. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCONTSA